GT Briefing January 2011: Looking Ahead — The Best of 2011 Trends

January 2011: Typing Trends for 2011 into Google on January 1^st 2011 gave us around 46 million results, so there is obviously no lack of people with opinions on what is in store for the year ahead.  The problem is there is so much out there that it is tough to sort the noise from the merely interesting to the extremely important.   So we thought we would give you a brief overview of where you can find some of the more interesting and important trend forecasts and predictions for 2011. As always, bear in mind that in a world as uncertain as ours such forecasts are not meant to be accurate. Treat them as directional and informed opinions on potential opportunities and challenges that can offer new perspectives to supplement your own thinking on what might be possible, feasible and desirable.  Don’t forget to look at top trends outside your own industry or market space – these may well cross over sooner than you think! We will pick up on many of these trends in our next GT briefings along with examples of how they are being – or could be – translated into action.

Global Trends/Macro Trends

• Ten Key Trends to Watch – In Action!  No apologies for suggesting you take a look back at the trends we highlighted in our December GT Briefing – these will likely be relevant well beyond 2011 but you are likely to see them in increasing action over the next year.  Check out the mobile time machine, potential for crises in water, food and electricity, the global technology race and more here.  
• McKinsey Quarterly Global Forces:  McKinsey has identified five forces, or “crucibles,” where the stresses and tensions will be greatest and thus offer the richest opportunities for corporate strategies.  These five forces are focused on economic shifts and implications for the business world, characterized as the great rebalancing, the productivity imperative, the global grid, pricing the planet and the market state.  Find out more here.  
• Topics for the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum:  The theme for Davos 2011 is Shared Norms for the New Reality, which the forum suggests: “Reflects the foremost concern of many leaders today – namely, living in a world that is becoming increasingly complex and interconnected and, at the same time, experiencing an erosion of common values and principles that undermines public trust in leadership as well as future economic growth and political stability.” Topics include: 1. Responding to the New Reality; 2. The Economic Outlook and Defining Policies for Inclusive Growth; 3. Supporting the G20 Agenda; 4. Building a Risk Response Network.  For the executive summary click here.
• The Economist – The World in 2011: The Economist has been producing The World in…. for 25 years, and this year’s collection of predictions, opinions and ideas is as always an interesting mix.  From commentaries on a rich world struggling with a weak and jobless recovery, and an emerging world growing four times as fast, to division and frustration in international affairs, to the world in multimedia, to how technology and imagination can address fundamental problems such as beating malaria. Well worth browsing here. 

Consumer Trends 

• Trendwatching’s 11 Crucial Consumer Trends for 2011: Another great round-up of key consumer trends to watch for the year ahead and most probably beyond, with excellent examples to generate inspiration and innovation. Among the trends: Random acts of kindness, urbanomics, pricing pandemonium, and made for China (if not BRIC). Click here for this must-read briefing.
• JWT 10 trends for 2011: While the full report is only available for purchase, JWT has done a 2 minute video to summarize its key trends for 2011, which include: All the world’s a game, de-teching and hyper-personalization. Check out the video here, along with the Slideshare presentation of 100 Things to Watch.  
• Trend Hunter: Consumer trend site, Trend Hunter, has also summarized their top 20 (consumer, social media, business, lifestyle, art & design) trends for 2011 in a video.  These include: Interactive retail, wearable tech, toddler touchscreens, democratic selling, tweetonomics and, number 1, discrete consumerism.  See the video here.

Economic Trends

• IMF: The IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) offers the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments globally, in major regions and by levels of country development, as well as for individual countries.  It covers major economic policy issues plus prospects. The last full version was October 2010, for which click here. In addition, there are more frequent updates of economic growth forecasts, with the latest (click here) suggesting a two-speed recovery will dominate in 2011, with growth remaining slow in advanced economies, while the challenges for fast-growing emerging economies will include avoiding over-heating. A number of European countries will also face a tough macroeconomic adjustment. 
• World Bank: The World Bank published its World Economic Prospects 2010 in June 2010 (click here), suggesting global GDP would expand between 2.9% and 3.3% in 2010 and 2011, strengthening to between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2012, although also warning that high income countries would not grow fast enough to make up for the contraction in 2009.  The Global Economic Monitor offers monthly and weekly updates on economic conditions.  
• Major banks’ economic outlooks: The major commercial and investment banks offer their forecasts for economic prospects in 2011, with a common theme of a two-track recovery. A useful summary from Reuters can be found here while Morgan Stanley’s forecast can be found at Rebalancing, reflation and reconciliation. 

Financial Markets Trends

• Fortune – Where to invest in 2011: Investing in financial markets, whether equities, bonds or commodities is tougher than ever in the post-crisi world of uncertainty and volatility.  Fortune’s expert panel offers some ideas on where they see opportunities for 2011 here.
• Association of Investment Companies via FT: Similarly, the fund managers of the AIC suggest there will be continued uncertainty, but also offer optimism, especially around investments in emerging markets, with a brief summary from the FT here.
• FT: The FT’s commentators offer a range of market views for 2011, with Lex suggesting corporate borrowers need to make sure they are not crowded out of credit markets by sovereigns (here, note subscription may be required); Martin Wolf suggesting that real interest rates will rise steadily (here); and John Plender suggesting investors seek the least bad investments in 2011 (here). Also check out a quick overview of some of the key things the FT sees in store for 2011, from cuts to atom-smashing here.
• WSJ MarketWatch: The WSJ’s MarketWatch team is positive on financial market prospects for 2011, the third year of a bull market which started in March 2009, although with the caveats of volatility and uncertain economic growth.  See more here.

Technology Trends

• Gartner Strategic Technologies: Gartner defines a strategic technology as one with potential for a significant impact on the enterprise in the next three years. It may be an existing or emerging technology that will potentially impact an organisation’s long-term plans, programs and initiatives. Among the top 10 Strategic Technologies are: Cloud computing, next generation analytics, social communications, and collaboration. Find out more here.
• CIO Insight: CIO Insight presents what they believe to be the top technology trends in 2011. They suggest that 2011 is the year where enterprises will move off the sideline and actively begin using and promoting consumer technologies in the corporate environment. It is also believed to be the year in which there will be seen a significant shift in the IT organization as well as major developments in cloud, virtualization and mobility. For more click here.
• IT Security Trends: Imperva is predicting that the security threat landscape in 2011 will make data security more challenging than ever. Mobile devices interacting with corporate networks will cause the biggest potential impact. Hacker activity could consolidate into a small number of stronger but more powerful and resourceful criminal organizations. There is expected to be a significant rise in the so-called man-in-the-browser attacks as criminals target the weakest link. Insider threats will also become more prominent as regulations force organizations to become more transparent. For more on security threats visit here.

Social Media Trends

• CrowdSpring: Every business has customers who are sure they could design the products better than themselves. Why not let them? Crowdsourcing is fundamentally changing business, government, non-profit, education, research, and other sectors. Among crowdsourcing trends in 2011 CrowdSpring suggests you will find crowdsourcing marketplaces gaining significantly more market share; more professionals participating; and of course, the rise of mobile crowdsourcing. For more visit here.
• Readwriteweb: Today more than 550 million people are on Facebook, 65 million tweets are posted on Twitter each day, and about 2 billion videos are viewed each day on YouTube. Like it or not social media has become an integral part of our connected lives. Ustrategy has identified 10 ways Social Media will change in 2011. For example: Social media will be supersized, mobile will become our gateway to the world, social business intelligence will heat up and so will privacy. For more on social media changes visit here.
• Mashable: Mashable predicts that in 2011, the focus for news media on mobile will continue to grow with the launch of mobile- and iPad-only news products, but the greater focus for news media in 2011 will be on re-imagining its approach to the open social web. The focus will shift from searchable news to social and share-able news. The predications include: More media mergers and acquisitions; the death of the ‘foreign correspondent’ and social storytelling becomes reality. For more social news media predications visit here.
• TNW Social Media: Social media changes from month to month but some of the bigger main trends from 2010 will continue in the forthcoming year. TNW Social Media has identified seven important social media trends for 2011 which include: Group buying, question and answer sites, Facebook Credits, and Twitter monetizing. For more click here.
• Social media on the HBR blog: An interesting post on the HBR blog by David Armano of Edelman Digital outlines 6 social media trends to look out for in 2011, including: It’s The Integration Economy, Stupid; Tablet & Mobile Wars Create Ubiquitous Social Computing; and Average Participants Experience Social Media Schizophrenia. For more click here.  

Mobile Trends

• myDigitallife: Research firm Gartner in a March 2010 report took a closer look at the 10 mobile technologies it expects will become increasingly popular through 2011 that should be on every enterprise’s radar. It also expects spending on mobile applications and technologies to increase, as enterprises emerge from the global recession. From Bluetooth versions 3 and 4 to enhanced location awareness, Gartner expects these technologies to affect corporate strategies, address mobile challenges and see IT be on the wish lists of employees. Find out more about the 2011 mobile tech trends here.
• ComMetrics: The phone is no longer just for making calls and the computer does not exactly need a keyboard. The new computers are the Tablet PCs, netbooks and smartphones. These are the simple, purpose-built devices for connecting or providing access to the cloud. ComMetrics’ 2011 trends for mobile communication and return on investment cover hardware, internet access, internet use, and usefulness and usability. For more click here.
• Focus: In 2011 Focus expects to see even more of a shift towards the mobile realm than in 2010, as more consumers access the internet on the go. By 2011, more than 85% of the handsets shipped globally are expected to include a browser, which means a major percentage of phone users will be accessing the web through mobile devices. Among trends included in its Top 10 Hot Mobile Trends are: Mobile SEO; touchscreen website development and location-based networks. For more information visit here.

Design & Fashion Trends

• IKEA:  Each year there many design trends find their way into the pages of the IKEA catalog. The IKEAFans website highlights some that you should expect to see based on their own observations from IKEA’s 2011 range, so look out for these in homes near you soon! Click here to learn more about:   Pink, Ethnic, Textural, Blue, Modular, Colorful, Folk.
• Monocle: Amongst an eclectic mix of forecasts on global affairs, business, culture and design, Monocle’s suggests that design is playing a more integrated role in government, society and business strategies around the world. Design is about problem-solving and many governments and businesses are now recognizing that design gives a competitive edge, not to mention financial rewards.  Check out the five design schools at the leading edge in the magazine here for more (note subscription required or buy the hard copy).
• Suite101: What is set to be in in 2011 in terms of fashion trends? It looks like 2011 will bring a more natural and affordable style ranging from eco-conscious aesthetics, to new vintage. For more on this visit here.
• Hubpages: And what do the interior designers and manufacturers say will be the highlight of decorating in 2011? It looks like the trends for 2011 stress are Green, Art and Timelessness.  Some of the trends are Luxury that’s green; Classic Colors; Custom Cabinets and No more white ceilings. For more interior design trends go here
• Usatoday: Home design trends in 2011 are suggested to be moving towards smaller, greener urban homes. The glitz is gone and people want healthier homes. For more on these home design trends visit here.
• Cosmoworld: And if you want to know more about what will be trendy in the fashion, interior design, color and decorations visit here.

Health & Wellness Trends 

• American Council on Exercise (ACE): Trends for 2011 suggest that consumers are ready to focus on improving their overall health. It will not only be as an increase in personal training, but also in value-added wellness services such as nutritional counseling by registered dietitians at gyms and fitness clubs, corporate wellness plans and youth-based fitness curriculum. Additionally a continued trend toward working out with a buddy or within small groups for motivation is seen, as well as continued interest in boot camp-style workouts, unique activity options like Zumba, TRX Suspension and interval training. For more visit here.
• American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM):  A worldwide survey among 2,200 certified health and fitness professionals shows more people are turning to experienced fitness pros and fitness programs. The survey predicts the top 20 worldwide fitness trends for 2011. Among the top 3 you will find: 1. Educated and experienced fitness professionals; 2. Fitness programs for older adults; 3. Strength training. For more visit here.
• The Food Channel:  The Top 10 food trends show that, as we head into 2011, people are beginning to cherish simplicity. We have tasted it and have been won over. In 2011, the consumer is all about buying from a business that is dedicated to creating a quality product, dedicated to doing the right thing, regardless of the size of the business or the number of products they produce. Among the favorite food trends you will find: 1. The canning comeback; 2. Men in aprons; 3. Local somewhere. For more on these trends visit here.
• The Lempert Report, Food, Nutrition & Science: New USDA dietary guidelines, technological advancements and the US First Lady’s ‘Let’s Move’ program, will help empower Americans in 2011 to make positive changes in their diets. Trends expected in the US – and likely more globally too – include: New nutritional guidelines reflected in labelling to highlight the holistic value of food, food apps to help you decide what to buy as well as for check-out, vitamin D being increasingly important, and smaller food stores.  Click here for more.

Retail Trends 

• Luxist: According to the Luxury Institute the truly global top-tier luxury brands are surging in China, while holding their own in the US, Japan, and Europe. Leading public companies have done much better than privately owned brands by using their heritage, innovation, and resources to gain market share. Many family-owned European brands, rich with history but lacking innovation, have suffered. Some of the luxury trends that have emerged in 2010 and should continue in 2011 are: “Luxury Brands Purges its Out-of-Touch, Arrogant Staffs and A Deepening Focus on Brand and Service Values.” Find out of more here.
• Entrepreneur: It looks like the future of franchising is looking bright but where is it heading next? Entrepreneur magazine has identified 10 categories when it comes to industries to watch in 2011. Whether they’re services that people can’t afford to live without, such as child care and healthcare, or luxuries made more affordable through franchising, like fitness and spa services, these are the businesses that kept growing strong right through the recession and show no signs of slowing. For more on Franchising trends visit here.

Travel Trends

• Travelanthropist:  The first eco-tourism conference has been held in Europe and according to the delegates at the conference some of the hot topics and trends that are expected to been seen in 2011 are: Zero carbon hotels, voluntourism, slow travel, and local travel tovement. Find out more here.
• CNBC Business: So where do we want to spend our vacation in 2011. CNBS Business has released the 10 hottest destinations for 2011, which include Brazilian beaches, Algerian ruins and Barak Obama’s hometown Chicago. For more information click here.
• Traveling Greener: The UK travel agency has released its annual green travel trend predictions for 2011, which suggest that customers want experience for money versus value for money. Other trends include: Sayonara Staycation, and ‘hello’ Middle East. For more travel trends visit here.
• TripAdvisor: TripAdvisor’s 2011 Travel Trends forecast looks at where US respondents to its survey want to go and what they want to do. 90% will take two or more leisure trips in 2011, and view the growth of online deals as extremely positive. With 69% intending to travel internationally, top destinations are Paris, London and Rome. For more click here.
• Condé Nast Traveller: In their latest magazine, Condé Nast offers its Gold List of 2011, its view on the best hotels in the world, along with the best bargain breaks, diving destinations and more. Worth a look here, once the holidays are over and you are planning the next one.

Marketing Trends

• B2C Marketing Insider: The Loyalty Marketer’s Association suggests 11 key customer loyalty trends for 2011: “2011 may well be called the year of customer loyalty. In today’s crowded marketplace, creating loyal, engaged customers is more important —- and more challenging — than ever.” Trends include: Marketers will increasingly understand that loyalty is not a program — it is a journey and a strategic business goal; Loyalty will focus more on emotions than on rational; and incentive-based initiatives. Marketers will also integrate social gaming into their loyalty initiatives. For more click here.
• Madison Avenue’s ad trends: The WSJ (click here, subscription required) has rounded up views on where advertising will be heading in 2011, with no surprises for more mobile ads, but think about virtual product demos and TV apps amongst other potential ad trends.  
• Mashable Mobile Advertising Trends: Mashable believes mobile advertising is increasingly important as cell phone adoption rates soar, especially smartphone adoption rates. With a range of mobile advertising options, including SMS, WAP, mobile app display ads, search ads, rich media, video and push notifications, the landscape is increasingly complicated. Mashable suggests five mobile advertising trends to watch in 2011: Continued importance of SMS; experimentation with rich media; mobile sites vs. mobile apps; interest in geo-location; and the growth of mobile video. For more information visit here.
• AdAge Book of Tens Column: A recent column by Pete Blackshaw of NMIncite suggests 10 disruptivemarketing trends for 2011 including: The rise of defensive branding, QR codes everywhere, all the world’s a service desk and local loco (anywhere/anyplace shopper tools). For more on this column click here.
• ClickThrough Search Trends: Which marketing techniques and activities are effective and where should the company make its investments next year? To help answer the questions, ClickThrough has laid out 11 search trends for 2011 from the big to the small, which they think are essential to success. These include: Investing in content; responding to real-time search and online conversations; and think Global. For more search trends visit here.

In February: Look out for trends in action in the area of social good.

Happy New Year from the GT Team!